©℗ All music, lyrics and written material 2007,
2008, 2009, 2010
Gigs, Lectures, Television,
Radio, Presentations and Calendar
Films:
These are my films; written, filmed and
produced by myself and scored by the band.
The Ice and the Sea
(45 minutes)
Come camp with me at the edge of
the Greenland Ice sheet and see "The Big Melt" for yourself. The
latest discoveries form the new super sensitive gravity satellites show
sea level rise acceleration is 0.08 to 0.09 mm per year, every year.
That's 25 times faster than the 20th century, and this acceleration
is increasing. I'll tell you more about it when you accompany me in
the film down the 62 mile long four wheel drive beach at Padre
Island National Seashore. This film shows the rapidly accelerating ice
melt and discharge in Greenland and cumulative sea level rise on
Padre Island National Seashore - from some of my old historic photos
and analysis of coastal process science. Our beaches are
almost gone. If you haven't been in a while, take yourself there
soon. It's amazing how small they have become so quickly.
What Have We Done
(46 minutes)
(This is the 46 minute version of the film, I am still working on
the full length cut. You can see the original 12-minute 2008
version
here.) The astonishing forest die-off hitting the Rockies from
warming induced bark beetle infestation has reached a critical level.
The attack is 20 times larger than anything ever before experienced. In
August 2009 I spent 19 days and
5,000 miles crisscrossing the high Rockies from New Mexico to
Montana. Everywhere I went I found dead trees - more than I was
expecting. And it is not just the pine beetle that is killing the
forests of the Rockies. Insects and disease are attacking
these high altitude forest because, like the Arctic, climate change
happens here first. Half the campgrounds I stayed in were clear cut because
of falling tree hazards. Fifty two million acres have succumbed in
North America by 2008. Eighteen million of the fifty two million acres
were attacked in 2007 and
2008. Most of the trees in these forests will die in the next few
years. The forest professionals see no reason why the pandemic will
not spread continent wide. The US Forest Service says that
all of the mature lodgepole forests in
the US will be killed by 2013. This is 11% of the forests in the U.S.
Rockies. The following report was written to support the short film
I produced in 2008. It will be upgraded in the near future. (North
America's Mountain Pine Beetle Pandemic)
The Fight For
The Rio Tigre (18 minutes)
I have been fortunate enough to get a sponsorship to go
to Costa Rica and help with a river mining issue at one of the most
fabulous places on the planet. Yes, river mining. They are
taking the gravel out of the river for road and resort
development. This basically removes the river from its bed.
This type of activity is extremely difficult to repair by man, and
takes decades and even centuries for mother nature herself to
repair. There have been 28 recent applications for this kind
of thing - across the entire river bed, for up to two kilometers per
application. The activity that I am focusing on is in SW Costa
Rica on 12 different rivers. Now don't forget that Costa Rica packs
a powerful ecological punch. Rainfall is extremely high and the
mountains rise to 11,000 feet, so ecological diversity could be the
highest on the planet. The area in SW Costa Rica where the mining is
happening is only the size of the Houston metropolitan area, yet the
Smithsonian Institute calls it the "single most important ecological
area on the Pacific Coast of Central America".
Rio Tigre Supporting Report:
In-stream gravel mining
impacts and environmental degradation feedback associated with
gravel mining on the Rio Tigre of the OSA Peninsula, Costa Rica, and
the proposed ADI Jimenez Gravel Mining Concession An environmental
impact summary and hydrographic analysis of the ADI Jimenez Gravel
Mining Proposal Environmental Impact Statement
link
Protest on the Osa Peninsula - this is becomign a big deal in Costa
Rica (Link).
Melton, Cespedes
Is Costa Rica Killing Its Rivers?. This is the extended version of the article Dr. Cespedes
and I wrote for the Tico Times (below).
Cespedes and Melton, Is Costa Rica Killing Its Rivers? Published
in the Tico Times in Costa Rica, San Jose, Costa Rica.
Jack Ewing, Owner of Hacienda
Baru has written this piece for a local Costa Rican publication
Domincal News:
Has the Time Come to
Say Goodbye to an Old Friend?
about their endangered river otter threatened by five river mining
applications on the Baru river about 30 miles north of the Osa
Peninsula.
Warneke, Cespedes and Melton, To Kill, or Not To Kill the Rivers of
a Precious Place, April 2010.
Riverbed Mining Destroying the Rivers and Wildlife of Osa Peninsula
Save the Rio Tigre!
This is a PowerPoint presentation prepared by the AsCoDoBra RiTi (Associacion
Conservacionista de Dos Brazos de Rio Tigre). This presentation has
donation information as well as more specific details about the
mining concessions.
Rio Tigre Website
New Essays
The Good
News About Climate Change A Google Scholar
search for "global warming" and or "climate change" for the year
1987 found 88 citations. The same search for the year 2007 found
8,010 citations. Between 1900 and WWII when antibiotics were
invented, deaths from infection fell by 80%. After antibiotic
use became widespread during WWII, deaths from infection fell only
another 15%. It was the introduction of common knowledge
hygiene practices based on infection prevention techniques that
saved so many lives.
North America's Mountain Pine Beetle Pandemic
- Twenty seven million acres of trees have been killed in the Rockies
in the last decade in an entirely unprecedented bark beetle attack,
and hardly a soul has heard. The US Forest Service Incident
Commander for the beetle infestation says 1.5 million acres
and 750 million trees have been killed in Colorado. That equals 13.5
billion trees so far in the pandemic. In ten years the total
will be 25 to 30 billion trees and climbing. This is climate change at it's most
startling to date. Even more alarming, there are literally dozens of
these insect infestations of lesser, but still astonishing scale,
happening around the world as we speak. The film below -
What Have We Done? is a companion to this article.
Hurricanes and Climate Change: On the Ground In Galveston with Ike
- a photo essay: I spent three nights in the
deserted McDonald's parking lot on the edge of Stewart Beach during
the mandatory evacuation...
Films and Videos
What Have We Done
by Bruce Melton, P.E., 12 minutes
-
A short film about the greatest
tree pandemic in North America in possibly 10,000 years. It is
happening now. Four hundred million trees are dead in the American
Rockies. Five billion trees are dead in British Columbia - and
this is ongoing. This is what the scientists have been warning
us about when they said that insect infestation would increase in a
warmer world.
Climate Change Now: Abrupt Climate Change
is Here
by Bruce Melton, P.E., 26 minutes - This is
the sample video for my documentary. This piece takes the
viewer to Greenland to see just how extreme the melt is, from ice
cap stability to melt of over 30 vertical feet per year in just one
season. At the flick of an imaginary switch, Point 660 and many,
many other places in Greenland went from stable ice states to
rapidly melting ice places. This happened in 2004. In 2007, over 100
vertical feet had melted, and 2007 saw the greatest melt season
recorded in history, shattering the previous record by 12%. This is
a new version of the film sample that I completed for the Sundance
deadline in early July. This version has an introduction that
includes Dr. Amundson's time motion study of the Jakobshavn Glacier
in a very substantial calving event and a final sequence at the
coast showing the substantial sea level rise that has taken place
there since the Big Melt began.
Time Lapse of accelerated ice discharge from the Ilulissat Ice
Fjord, Ilulissat Greenland Courtesy Dr. David Holland, Director of
the Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science, University of New York
Dr. Holland's Ice Sheet Cam
http://efdl.cims.nyu.edu/index.html
Time lapse of the Jakobshavn Glacier calving (extreme), Ilullssat,
Greenland: Courtesy Dr. Jason Amundson, Geophysical Institute,
University of Fairbanks, Alaska
Extreme Climate Change Montage This is just a quick montage of a
number of different videos that I have accumulated from different
scientists that I needed to put together for a television
interview. The methane seeps burning on the frozen Alaskan lake are
courtesy Dr. Katey Walters, University of Fairbanks, AK. The others
are referenced elsewhere on this site.
Notes From Bruce:
January 20, 2010
McDonald's sells 2.3 billion burgers a year - you think we can't
change the world's climate? How do we (the science guys) get it
through to the public's and our leader's brains that this is real,
it is deadly serious, it is happening now and it is happening faster
and with greater consequences than was projected just a few years
ago! In three years, seas level rise will cross the barrier island
and coastal wetlands disintegration threshold says the EPA, USGS and
NOAA. When sea level rise hits 7 mm per year, our barrier islands
and coastal wetlands will begin to disappear. This will happen in
2012.
In the Rockies, 52 million acres of trees have been killed by
just one of over a dozen major insect infestations and diseases and
the pandemic is accelerating. The largest previous infestation like
was 3 million acres, it ended just after the turn of the century and
it took a decade to kill those 3 million acres. In 2008, 18 million
of those 52 million acres were killed. The CO2 emitted from these
dead forests, not absorbed like forests are supposed to do, is
approximately equal to all of the emissions from Canada's entire
transportation fleet and these dead forests will continue to emit
these GHGs for 20 years. The study that discovered this,
done by the Canadian Forest Service, did not take into account the
massive carbon stored in the ground in our northern forests.
Tropical forests are exactly the opposite. The climate of the north
promotes massive storage of organic material underground, many times
what is stored in the trees, and in the case of permafrost, often a
hundred times more than is stored in the forest. Forest
professionals in 2009 started publicly stating that they see no
reason why the pandemic would spread continent wide in the not too
distant future.
When the forest dies, sunlight reaches the forest floor. The
environment of the forest becomes vastly different. The soil dries
and carbon is releases. The soil warms and permafrost melts. When a
northern forest ecosystem changes like this a significant portion of
the carbon in the soils is almost immediately released. The Canadian
forests service study did not include this soil carbon in their
analysis. The scientists analyzing the soil carbon in late 2009 say
that it is likely that the carbon release will likely be at least
two to three times greater than expected.
The tree killing pandemics are increasing, the warming will not
stop. The scientists projections these days are almost entirely
conservative. We have crossed a climate threshold.
We can do something about the climate crisis,
but we will have to start spending money on our environment like we
have been spending on our institutions that are too big to fail
because, our Earth is too big to fail.
January 26, 2009
Nope, sorry, it keeps getting worse. it will take our climate
1,000 years to stabilize. See the entry from Breaking News for
today's date. The one most important thing we can do is to start
taking some of the CO2 that is already in the atmosphere back out
again.
At least we have a start. Obama. Yes we can.
It is unperceivable that we have had, for the last eight years,
in the greatest country ever known, a leader who did not believe in
science.
The thirty year climate lag has triggered the feedback
mechanisms. But the scientists now know enough to start publishing
what they have known were the answers for some time now.
We can do this. It will take a lot of money and a lot heart. A
lot more heart than this world has right now. The risks are
not perceived. There is no judgment day.
October 20, 2008
The thing to remember about climate change is
that - it doesn't get any better and
it keeps getting worse faster.
Once we have reduced our greenhouse gas emissions to about the same
levels that we had sometimes in the early 20th century - about 1930
- then it will take 30 years for our climate to stabilize.
The good news is the new knowledge that has come about recently
in the field of climate science. In 1987, Google Scholar
listed 88 academic citations for the search terms "global warming"
and or "climate change". In 2007, they listed 8,010. That's
an increase of 25% per year or a total increase of almost 10,000
percent! All of this knowledge is the good news today - it just has
to be interpreted from the language of science into English. This
is an extraordinarily good thing because, now we know what is
broken. We know what to do to fix things - or at least to keep them
from getting worse than they are already going to be.
The key is new knowledge. There is a societal response to new
knowledge that is almost overwhelming. What I mean is - that
society, all by itself, goes a long way towards solving problems,
towards meeting challenges,- without technical innovations. All
that is needed is the knowledge that something is so, that a reality
is true, that a cause and response exists and that the response can
be modified for the better. An example is the discovery of hygiene
practices about the turn of the 20th century. These are ordinary
practices that we take for granted today - the benefits of clean
water (don't put the privy next to the water well), proper
wastewater disposal (don't let it run down the street), appropriate
food handling techniques, appropriate food prep and food storage
techniques (cleanliness and temperature), the cleaning and proper
care of skin wounds, etc. etc.
Between 1900 and 1940, deaths from bacterial infection fell 80%
because of the widespread acceptance of proper hygiene practices.
During the early part of WWII, antibiotics were invented. After the
invention of antibiotics, deaths from infection fell only another
15% to where they are today. This is a colossal example of how
knowledge alone changed the world through common everyday tasks.
We have the knowledge today to fix our climate. We may have to
undergo another 30 years of worsening climate before it starts to
get better, but the good news is - it can get better in 30 years if
we act now.
What do we do? We know what to do already. We have been gaining
this knowledge since the beginning of the Environmental Revolution
in the early 1970s.
The most important things we can do (in
this order):
Tell your friends about abrupt climate change.
Vote for the strongest environmentally candidate available - nothing
else matters.
Do what we already know to do to be green.
When something or someone is being wasteful, no matter how small or
how large, speak up (be nice), and then if you can, try and think of
a new solution that is better than the old solution.
Bruce
October 15, 2008
I read back on these notes and think "Gee whiz
this seems alarmist! Where#39;s the good news?" I have a radio
interview a few days before Halloween at the local college radio
station (KOOP Radio). The interview is on a show called "Good News".
The great challenge is to communicate the good news, to communicate
that we know what the problem is now so we can more intelligently
address the issues. I will be working on an essay with the strange
title "The Good News About Climate Change", but for now I need to
mention a few things.
The alarmist label placed on climate scientists
is conservative. What should be said about the alarming
statements coming from academia is more like "cataclysmic". Take for
example my extreme statements below about the great mountain pine
beetle pandemic. What I have not mentioned is that these
forests may not grow back. For many of the same reason that
the beetles are attacking trees at higher altitudes and higher
latitudes than ever before, what grows back in the place of these
forests will quite likely have a different species assemblage - that
is: a different kind of ecosystem will replace the one that has been
killed.
One of the most important reasons that the
beetles are killing all of these trees is because the climate is now
warmer and drier than it was a couple of decades ago. The beetles
like that, and the trees don't. These forests like the cold. They
grew up in a cold world. The trees have to have the cold to survive.
The trees that are being killed by the beetles
don't grow at lower altitudes in warmer areas because they can't
survive. As the mountains and the sub Arctic continue to warm
at a much faster rate than the rest of the world, many of the
forests that can only survive in the ultra cold areas at the tops of
the mountains and at the ends of the Earth will not longer have a
place to live. It will become too warm.
In some places fir trees and other, lower
altitude trees capable of living in warmer environments will take
over. Some places may see even warmer climate loving oaks growing
where once only the high altitude spruces and pines grew, and in
others, especially as time progresses and the mountains and the sub
Arctic warm even more, grasslands may become the predominant
vegetation type where there were once cold weather forests.
What does this mean? It means that the news
is even more alarming as we come to understand the extent of the
problem. Our Earth has had a very stable climate for thousands
of years. Today our climate is as warm as or very nearly as warm as
it has been in 100,000 years.
The good news? I didn't even mention the
negative feedback effects of less rainfall because of fewer trees -
yes, the rainforest effect. It works with forests of all kinds
- it is just more pronounced in the rain forest.
Tell your friends - we can do something about
this before it gets worse - and it can certainly get worse.
And don't forget to vote the environmental ticket - it's the only
issue that matters.
Bruce
September 3, 2008
The note below is to a colleague. She had
just viewed What Have We Done?
and was depressed, so what did I do - of course I proceeded to
depress here wildly beyond her belief... Climate change is
devastating. The death of our northern forests may be the first
extreme example of the devastation that climate change is capable
of. This is not alarmism, this is true alarm. The
death of 27 million acres of trees from the mountain pine beetle
pandemic in the Rockies is "very likely" and with a "high degree of
confidence", as the IPCC puts it, because of climate change.
The good news? We know now, with ever
greater certainty, that the time to act is now and that our actions
must be extraordinary.
Dear Ms. ----:
Sad now,
astonishingly devastating in a decade. Next year it gets even
worse - and then worse and worse. It does not get better. This
is what is meant by irreversible, unstoppable. This is our
climate change as we know it today. We - the scientists.
These are the effects of the insect infestations that academia has
been warning us about. Before I became so involved, I always
thought they meant more mosquitoes.
We tried to tell the people about it before the forests were killed.
There are still plenty of trees in Colorado, for now. And the
good news is that the trees will grow back. The beach will not
grow back. Sea level rise has increased too rapidly to sustain
significant beaches. In the future the rise rate will double
and then double again until some two or three decades
after
we reduce CO2 emissions below 1990 levels. Climate runs behind
mankind. We are changing the atmosphere too rapidly for it to
keep up. I grew up a beach bum. We have lost 90% of our
beaches - those non artificially nourished beaches. Some of
this loss is because of beach erosion caused by man's lakes trapping
all the sand before it gets to the sea. However between 1990
and 2000, sea level rise doubled, and between 2000 and 2006 it
doubled again.
In the past, sea level rise has been 2 feet per decade when
planetary ice was melting fast. The good news is that we have
a lot less ice on the planet now than at the peak of the ice ages.
However, greenhouse gas concentrations and their rate of increase
are far, far higher today than at any time in the last 3 to 30
million years. There is still over 200 feet of sea level rise
in Greenland and Antarctic ice. The last time the Earth was as
warm (2 to 3 degrees C warmer than today) as the greatest scientific
body of all time (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
predicts it will be in the year 2100, there was no ice on the planet
and sea level was 200 feet higher. The last time it was as
warm as the IPCC predicts it will be by 2050, one degree C warmer
than today, 1.8 degrees F, sea level was 80 feet higher. These
two things last happened 3 million and 125,000 years ago.
Aye, depressing, but not near as depressing as it is going to be,
and whenever I say things like this people just look at me and
stare. Yes it is unbelievable, but isn't the death of all those
trees in Colorado unbelievable? Is it truly going to take
cataclysmic destruction to get society's attention?
GOOD NEWS IS: We can do something about it. As bad as it
will get, it can always get worse. There is an enormous amount
of information available. Start with my website. I have 13 or
more essays and four chapters to a book. My 26 minute
documentary sample is depressing too. Then tell your friends.
Research on your own. Google James Hansen, read the papers on
his website - he's an easy to read scientist and the Director of the
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies:
the US climate
modeling agency. And finally - completely ignore the
contrarians. There are so few of them anymore that you could
stand them all inside a bathtub. They are significantly funded
by the coal and oil industry, or they are dinosaurs. It's not
even fair to say anymore that the vast majority of scientists
believe the numbers are so much bigger... They all do - the
naysayers are just so much scientific detritus, they don't matter
anymore.
Today the buzz is not about global warming, it is not about climate
change, it is about climate crisis. This is the story of our time,
the story of the future. The only story that matters. So tell your
friends. Make every effort you can to do everything about it
you can because, like the dying forests of the north, it will change
the Earth, and the myth that a warmer world is a better world is
just that, a myth, a cataclysmic, Earth changing myth.
Bruce.
July 21, 2008
The scientists are saying "surprising and unexpectedly" way too
often lately. I have just returned for a scouting trip to the
Rockies to look at the pine bark beetle pandemic there and was
astonished at how surprising and unexpected the outbreak is. I
have created a short film to show the devastation - it's linked
above.
My third generation sample is posted now - much better than the
second generation. I am talking to Sundance about funding, got
an application in and they have asked for supplemental material.
Wish me luck.
Here's a note I wrote to a friend when asked "Where's the water for
this sea level rise going to come from?"
Twenty feet of sea level rise is in Greenland, 180 feet is in
Antarctica. What remains of our mountain glaciers is too
little to worry about. Greenland's ice discharge doubled from
1990 to 2000. It doubled again from 2000 to about 2005 - the
latest data we have (science takes 3 to 5 years to go from
grant application to published journal article). Antarctica was
considered to be an ice-stable place, or even a slightly gaining ice
mass until just recently. New satellites that are 100 times
more accurate than the previous gravimetric satellites and new
analytical techniques have now shown us definitively that over the
last 10 years, Antarctic has gone for "zero" ice loss to losing as
much ice as Greenland does every year.
So, sea level rise has increased proportionately. Twenty years
ago it was assumed that it would take 10,000 years for Greenland to
substantially melt. Then at the end of the 20th century, after
Greenland's ice cap started discharging so rapidly, scientists
reevaluated their projections and said that the Greenland Ice Cap
could melt within a couple thousand years. Now the really scary
part: Icequakes! A little thought and anyone would say - oh
sure, icequakes - big cracks in the ice cap right? Nope.
Huge icequakes - relative to the common ice cap cracking type,
were recently discovered coming from Greenland. Previous
icequakes have all been below 2.7 Richter magnitude and last for one
or two seconds. Beginning about 1990, huge icequakes
registering 4.7 to 5.1 Richter Magnitude and lasting 90 to 150
seconds started to occur. It is speculated that these quakes
are being caused as large areas of the ice cap slip on cushions of
water that are a result of surface melt translated to the bottom of
the ice cap through cracks and fissures. These ice quakes have
about mirrored Greenland's ice discharge - doubling from 1990 to
2000 and then doubling again by about 2005. Sure enough, Swiss
Camp, about 100 kilometers from the central west coast of Greenland
has experience the ice cap there increasing in altitude up to two
feet during periods of heavy melt during the summer melt season.
Nineteen years ago, when Swiss Camp was founded, it never melted
during the summer - it was always below freezing. So now ice
discharging Greenland, between 2000 and 2005, has doubled again
(Science is slow - 2005 is the latest we have data for - it takes 3
to 5 years to get from the grant writing phase to the academically
published stage).
And then there's Antarctica's West Antarctic Ice Sheet. It is
a marine ice sheet left over after the end of the last ice age. It's
the last of it's kind and the only one we have ever seen as humans.
We do know that marine ice sheets are inherently unstable.
This one is 10,000 feet thick, extends below sea level for half of
that thickness and has a warming ocean current beneath it. It is not
an ice shelf because it is held up by mountains that pin it in
place. Like the Wilkin's ice shelf - the WAIS is eroding from
beneath. We don't know when it will collapse, but we do know
that like the Wilkin's and the Larson B in 2003 - These kind of
shelf disintegration's can be exceedingly massive and abrupt.
The risk of instantaneous multi-meter sea level rise is quite real.
June 15, 2008
The North American land temperature has definitely had an effect on
Global temps. May was the 35th coldest in the U.S. Along with
the rest of the relatively cold temps last winter and this spring,
North America has almost single handedly brought the global temps
down to 14th warmest. But you couldn't tell it here in Austin.
This winter was in the top 4 to 5 warmest we have ever seen.
This summer, which starts here in Austin in April, is on track to be
the warmest ever. We have had above normal temps 28 days in a row,
the average May temp is running over 8.7 degrees above normal with
an average temperature for May of 88.5 degrees. It's 91
degrees and almost 10 pm as I write. We have had 11 days with
temps at 100 degrees or higher. An average year in Austin sees
11 days total with the temps 100 degrees or higher and the first day
of summer is still 4 days away.
What's going on? The climate models project this kind of thing. Some
areas will have extremely differing climate patterns as the planet
warms. An extreme example of this was just last year in
Austin. We saw the wettest January through July ever recorded last
year, and with the warm winter and extremely hot summer so far
this year we could certainly be setting some significant records
this year.
And despite the cool temps in North America, Arctic sea-ice is
poised for a new record and temps across most of the rest of the
planet are nowhere near normal. See more at the Breaking News
link above.
May 23, 2008
Padre Island National Seashore trip: Lots of good footage and
self interviews, lots of good stills. Made it to mile 44, no
turtles, lots of USFWS cute turtle biologists (endangered Kemp's
Ridley sea turtle). Camped at Mile 25 at the big sand dune. The tide
was very high again (for the third trip in the last 8 months - don't
know what it's been between). Sea level
rise is accelerating. I have decided after the last
three trips that I will make a big deal out of accelerating sea
level rise in the documentary. Ice melt has doubled in the
decade preceding about 2003 or 2004. Then once we crossed the
climate threshold at about the 2003 / 2004 time period, climate
change accelerated again, in the case of ice melt: many, many
scientist are concerned that this increase has been an order of
magnitude or 10 times faster than before! This is just like what Dr.
Fahnstock told me in Ilulissat. These science guys speak more freely
in-person. In their papers, they say what academia will
accept, and caveat the rest.
So the dotted line left unconnected is that rapidly accelerating ice
melt leads directly and dynamically to rapidly accelerating sea
level rise. The ice melt phenomena is all over academia, the
dynamically associated sea level rise phenomena has just barely been
touched. Why? Beats me. But science doesn't just
happen overnight. A need must be identified, funding found,
data collected, papers written, peers reviewed, and finally 3 to 5
months later, after comments from peer review are complete - the
paper is published. This is a two year minimum process, often
a five year process.
Here on the Texas Coast, everyone is wondering "Where'd the beach go
all of the sudden?" This is not a "natural tidal
fluctuation" this time. This is not long term beach erosion -
beaches were much larger than they are now just two years ago.
We have identified the need. This will be news in a year or
two or three, depending on when the latest studies actually were
started.
Sea level change for the 20th century averaged about 1.4 mm per
year. It increased 1990 to 2000 to 2.4 mm per year. In
2005 it had increased again to 3.5 mm per year. 2003 / 2004 was when
we crossed the "abrupt climate change threshold". Today?
We have to wait till the science is done.
So - go the beach! What we once new as the beach is gone, but
a little piece of it is still there for now.
May 2008
There is an extraordinary amount of new
information about climate change being released these days.
-
Our carbon emissions are much higher than
previously thought,
-
Frozen methane on the Arctic ocean floor is
starting to melt,
-
The Antarctic is melting, not cooling,
-
Methane clathrates in the Arctic sea have
started to melt,
-
Methane
emissions have spiked after being stable for nearly a decade,
-
Insect infestations are unprecedented in
North American forests,
-
100-year record snows in China have been
replaced by all-time record March warmth, Greenland melt
continues to accelerate.
Methane clathrates frozen methane on the
ocean floor on the shores of the Arctic Ocean: could be released
catastrophically, there's a huge reservoir of free gas locked
beneath permafrost beneath the ocean, frozen there since the last
ice age. There is about 1,000 gigatons of methane up there;
about a third is free gas. Our 6 billion people produce 5 - 7
gigatons of methane per year. Methane is 25 times more
powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2.
Pine Bark Beetle - Every large, mature lodgepole pine forest in the
Central Rockies will be dead within three to five years, killed in a
mountain pine beetle infestation unprecedented in severity. This is
from the Rocky Mountain Climate Group, an organization of 17
mountain state governments and numerous other organizations.
Ponderosa pine is at risk with this outbreak as well. Together the
lodgepole and ponderosa make up 55 million of the total 360 million
forested acres in the West. Most of this forest will be destroyed
in this outbreak.
The outbreak is worsened by National Forest Service burn policy,
however its severity and breadth are most directly linked to climate
change; long-term drought is the most important aspect of this
outbreak. Many of the other tree species in the West (and the east)
are at risk of insect infestation of this biblical magnitude as
well. There are dozens of insect pests, many of which are different
species of bark beetles, which are capable of this sort of
outbreak. Many of the infestations are already at historic levels
like the spruce bark beetle in Alaska and Canada, the aspen leaf
miner across North America and the spruce budworm in the central
Rockies.
April 2008
Just not enough time in this 36 hour day. I have been getting a lot
of good critique on my video from friends and colleagues. Feel free
to add to the pile - I love it. Be specific and offer creative
suggestions. An engineer can only be just so creative you know.
Email me at
bmelton@earthlink.net.
The quest for funding continues (along with the day job - Mesa
Engineering... have to keep the cash coming in somehow~~~.)I am
after the film circuit now, Austin Film Society, Sundance, etc. If
you have any suggestions - let me know.
I have given a couple of presentations since January - very well
received in general, folks really want to know what they can do to
help.
The fight against our local DOT (TxDOT) continues. I still can't
believe they want to replace our little four-lane road through this
small bedroom commuter community with a 12-lane superhighway. And to
show just how out of step with reality TxDOT is - they want to put a
loop around New Braunfels, a community of 40,000 between here and
San Antonio. No big deal, except New Braunfels already has a loop
and it is sparsely built out! So I will be volunteering my
professional capacity to the two groups down there, NCASE, a
citizens advocacy group and GRTU, the Guadalupe Chapter of Trout
Unlimited. I have spent a lot of time on the Guadalupe river
there. It would be significantly impacted by this loop to nowhere
except the land developers pockets.
You must look at the Priority Information Page! So much is going on
with our climate. I do believe we really have crossed a threshold.
The climate news will continue to accelerate - hang on, and watch
your carbon footprint!
February 2008
Climate Change Now
is a 2nd draft video piece for my climate
change docu-adventure that I have been working on for a couple of
years now. Wow! What an enormous amount of work! I've been to the
Greenland in the Arctic, to the sub Arctic in Alaska and a deserted
barrier island in the sub-tropics, mostly solo, mostly camping.
The word from the field is not good. The scientists are wide-eyed
and talking fast. They are saying things in the field that are not
published in their papers.
I was able to camp out next to the Ice Sheet in Greenland - It's
very alarming how fast it is melting... The scientists have been
speculating that we have passed through a climate threshold. I
don't think there's any more need for more speculation. Abrupt
climate change is here. I have video, stills and even some sketches
in the promo from Point 660 on the edge of the Ice Sheet, near
Kangerlussuaq, in western Greenland.
I also have a huge amount of content from the three trips. There was
a lot of permafrost melt in Alaska! Everywhere I turned there was
more melt, more drunken forests, more dead trees... And the week on
the deserted island in the homemade wooden boat? Superb as usual~~~
but the water was exceptionally high, had been all summer. The
water gets that way every 10 or 12 years down there for some
astronomical reason I imagine. They had very heavy rains
four months before, but that should have left plenty of time to
allow the waters to equalize. Who knows, it could very well be
rising sea levels. Kind-of hard to imagine with the melt scientific
consensus understanding of sea level rise being in the three
millimeter per year range, but with the passing of the threshold, we
won't really know for a few years yet...
It just takes time to do good science.
Bruce