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April 23, 2014 Critical sea level rise on Padre Island (on the Rag Blog) Sometime in 2013 pats of Padre Island passed through a threshold. At least four areas on this beach are now impassable at high tide except by four-wheel drive vehicles driving in the surf. For over 30 years I have been visiting Padre Island National Seashore, mostly as an official beach bum. My favorite thing to do on this narrow barrier island that protects the lower third of Texas’ coast is drive the four-wheel drive only beach. This place truly is a wilderness, or at least as close to one as we can get in Texas. By about 2003 it became painfully obvious that sea level rise was causing the beach to shrink; this wasn’t just another natural cycle. In 2007 I began film work for my first sea level rise documentary that included Greenland, and Matagorda and Padre Islands (Matagorda Island is on the Middle Texas Coast and it too is a barrier island). The film is called The Ice and the Sea and can be seen here.
April 2, 2014 US Falling Emissions a Mirage: Offshoring and Fracking America's emissions are not falling, as suggested by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The two main reasons are offshored goods and services and fracked natural gas. The EIA does two things that obscure reality when evaluating emissions. One is that it counts only emissions made in the United States. All those goods and services made in China or other developing nations don't count against US emissions. The other is the warming potential of other greenhouse gas emissions. The EIA counts only CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
March 18, 2014 Abrupt Climate Change: No Bioperturbation Today, we are burning fossil carbon one million times faster than it was naturally put in the ground, and carbon dioxide is increasing 14,000 times faster than anytime in the last 610,000 years (1,2). Climate is now changing faster than it has during any other time in 65 million years - 100 times faster than the Paleocene/Eocene extinction event 56 million years ago see here.(3) However, "climate change" is not the most critical issue facing society today; abrupt climate change is. Climate scientists now have the knowledge necessary to guide us beyond existing climate pollution policy. New policy needs to focus on abrupt climate change, not the relatively slow changes we see in climate models of our future. The social, economic and biological disruptive potential of abrupt climate change is far greater than that of the gradual climate change present policy is predicated upon.
EPIC! 22,000 hits, 4,700 "Likes" December 26, 2013 Climate Change 2013: Where We Are Now - Not What You Think (on Truthout.org)IMPORTANT ~ ~ ~ For full references and supplemental material see Climate Discovery here. ~ ~ ~ This article contains 67 of the most important and little known findings in the scholarly climate science literature that are fundamental to the big picture. Get a cup of coffee: 4,400 words and 2,800 words of references and supplemental material--don't forget to look at the the references for the rest of the story that is too arcane for the popular literature. ... We are in the midst of an era of frightening contradictions, when it comes to public understandings of climate change. While climate changes are occurring more quickly than scientists have ever predicted, most people’s knowledge of these realities remains hazy and clouded by political overtones. Because of both the counter-intuitive nature of climate change and the massive misinformation campaigns created by the fossil fuel industry, the general population is 20 years behind most climate scientists when it comes to the straightforward fact of "believing in" climate change. This is an ominous statistic: Now that scientists are predicting that even worse impacts than previously understood will happen significantly sooner, a rapid global response will be necessary for any attempt to stave them off. We are likely closer to irreversible dangerous climate change - if it has not begun already - and to take action, there must be a basic public consensus. There is, however, some hopeful news on the technological front if action is taken soon.
EPIC! 22,000 hits, 4,700 "Likes" December 26, 2013 Climate Change 2013: Where We Are Now - Not What You Think (on Truthout.org)IMPORTANT ~ ~ ~ For full references and supplemental material see Climate Discovery here. ~ ~ ~ This article contains 67 of the most important and little known findings in the scholarly climate science literature that are fundamental to the big picture. Get a cup of coffee: 4,400 words and 2,800 words of references and supplemental material--don't forget to look at the the references for the rest of the story that is too arcane for the popular literature. ... We are in the midst of an era of frightening contradictions, when it comes to public understandings of climate change. While climate changes are occurring more quickly than scientists have ever predicted, most people’s knowledge of these realities remains hazy and clouded by political overtones. Because of both the counter-intuitive nature of climate change and the massive misinformation campaigns created by the fossil fuel industry, the general population is 20 years behind most climate scientists when it comes to the straightforward fact of "believing in" climate change. This is an ominous statistic: Now that scientists are predicting that even worse impacts than previously understood will happen significantly sooner, a rapid global response will be necessary for any attempt to stave them off. We are likely closer to irreversible dangerous climate change - if it has not begun already - and to take action, there must be a basic public consensus. There is, however, some hopeful news on the technological front if action is taken soon.
October 4, 2013 Arctic Sea Ice and Al Gore's "Prediction 2013" (on Truthout.org) Predictably, the voices of denial are rising as Arctic sea ice melt season peaks and ranks only fifth-lowest ever. The clamor is being raised over Al Gore's Nobel Prize acceptance speech quote supposedly saying that Arctic sea ice would be gone by 2013.1 What Gore did or didn't say is beside the point: For the propagandists delivering this message, the objective is "cast doubt and discredit." From Gore's speech: Last September 21 (2007), as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years
October 4, 2013 Arctic Sea Ice and Al Gore's "Prediction 2013" (on Truthout.org) Predictably, the voices of denial are rising as Arctic sea ice melt season peaks and ranks only fifth-lowest ever. The clamor is being raised over Al Gore's Nobel Prize acceptance speech quote supposedly saying that Arctic sea ice would be gone by 2013.1 What Gore did or didn't say is beside the point: For the propagandists delivering this message, the objective is "cast doubt and discredit." From Gore's speech: Last September 21 (2007), as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years
August 15, 2013 Kick the Climate Deniers off the Island (on the Rag Blog) The science is certain, but the deniers are just as certain that their pseudo science is certain. Getting the last few deniers to agree with 97 percent of climate scientists though — is that a good use of resources? We have the vast majority of the public on our side — isn’t that enough votes? We can kick the deniers off the island. This is not a mean-spirited thing — far from it. It’s about the optimal path for resource-deprived situations.
July 25, 2013 Calling All Earthlings (on the Rag Blog) Average temperatures have risen rapidly at the Austin reporting station since the turn of the century but the National Weather Service’s 30-year average “normal” temperatures show little of this change yet. Average April highs and lows have risen 3.5 and 5 degrees respectively. The average August temperature has risen 5 degrees and the average January high and low has risen 6 and 9 degrees respectively. Because the National Weather Service’s 30-year averaging procedures mask this recent rapid warming, a valuable tool in climate change communications lies unused. We Earthlings who are not climate scientists do not have the telepathic powers necessary to understand how our climate is truly changing. Someone must tell us directly. Local temperature change is a prime example. We’ve heard a lot of “warmer than normal” since about the turn of the century, but when the details get broken down, accuracy falls behind.
May 26, 2013 A Fossil Fuel-Free New York State by 2050 (on Truthout.org) Research out of Stanford and Cornell has given us the most detailed plan yet for converting our society to fossil-free energy sources and beginning to address the new climate pollution -caused or -enhanced weather extremes. The plan is for New York State. Even though some officials and media outlets have dismissed it as too aggressive and overreaching, its benefits far outweigh the costs. The plan costs $569 billion and creates 4.5 million construction-phase jobs, with earnings (in the form of wages, local revenue and local supply-chain impacts) of $314 billion, along with 58,000 permanent jobs with annual earnings of $5.1 billion per year. This is before the health and environmental benefits of $33 billion per year, savings to the United States of $1.7 billion per year because of reduced global warming impacts (a savings which increases to $12.1 billion per year in 2100), and increased tax valuation due to eliminating the fossil fuel industry.
March 30, 2013 Propaganda, Self-Censorship and Climate Change (on Truthout.org) Climate change messaging is changing these days. One only needs to look as far as the Sierra Club's unprecedented encouragement of civil disobedience with the Keystone Pipeline to see this happening. The polls are telling us that some 70 percent or more of Americans believe the Earth is now warming. This falls to a little over 50 percent when the words "because of man" are added to the question, but it is a majority.
February 21, 2013 Worst Drought in 1,000 Years Could Begin in Eight Years (on Truthout.org) The latest research from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University published in December 2012 has some truly astounding news. The megadroughts referred to in the paper published in Nature Climate Change happened around about 900 to 1300 AD and are so extreme that they have no modern counterpart for comparison (these megadroughts will be referred to in the following as the "12th century megadrought"). The research was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
On Truthout.org! The World Bank Report "Turn Down the Heat": Is it Really this
Bad? Published on Truthout.org (January 11, 2013) The World Bank report
"Turn Down the Heat" paints a bleak picture. Our climate is changing rapidly and
it will continue to do so for time frames that matter. But this report, like so
many others in the public realm, conveys the "consensus" position on climate
change. This position is one "agreed to" by literally thousands of climate
scientists. And as in any situation where more than one specialist agrees on any
one issue, that issue is a watered down facsimile of the original. This is
because there are always disagreements as to the details and to agree on
something, positions must meet in the middle somewhere. What the latest science
says, not yet agreed to by the "consensus" is far more bleak than the World Bank
report. But! All is not lost. The solutions to climate pollution will be no more
difficult than providing our planet with clean drinking water every day.
Truthout.org link:
http://truth-out.org/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=13255&Itemid=228
References (must read!)
INSANDITY: Research Shows How Arctic Warming Causes Extreme Weather (November 5, 2012 on the Rag Blog) Another in a string of articles since Arctic sea ice started its rapid downward spiral. Warming in the Arctic twice or more what it is in lower latitudes is juicing the jet stream and kicking down warmer and more powerful storms from polar regions. The more powerful jet stream is larger and progresses more slowly east to west creating blocking patterns that are directly responsible for the paths, locations and unprecedented intensity of weather events from droughts to Superstorm Sandy. It's simply amazing how long the long dated thoughts about "any given weather event not being attributable to climate change" is continually repeated in the popular media echo chamber.
Greenland Melts: The Rest of the Story (October 2012) From The Austin Region Sierra Club Newsletter, page 7. Reporting abounds that this year's spectacular new melt record in Greenland is a common thing every 150 years. And it is, except it's NOT.
The Biggest Misunderstanding About Climate Change: Warming over land will be twice the global average because of cool ocean water (August 9, 2012) The title to this piece is obvious once said, but unknown otherwise. The commonly understood impacts of climate change of two to three degrees C of warming by 2100 (three to five degrees F) is a ridiculously small when the last twenty years worth of emissions is analyzed in the models. But it's the difference between warming over land and warming over water that gives us the astonishing reality that we can expect 14.4 degrees of warming over most areas of most continents by 2050.
The Climate Awareness Drought is Over: Time to Change the Tone (May 16, 2012) Another three part series, this one about recent shifts in public opinion on climate issues caused by extreme climate change related weather events. It's not surprising that the extremes have actually started to get people's attention, but what is surprising is that sociologists say we should change our messaging strategy to vocally and aggressively advocate for action because the political statistics shows this type of behavior wins vs. being silent like we have for so many years now.
Picked up in the Rag and across the known eUniverse:
Part One: It's Time to Change The Tone
http://theragblog.blogspot.com/2012/05/bruce-melton-climate-change-awareness.html
Part Two: Voices Tell Us the "Warmists are Dead" Public
Awareness
Drought is Over, Part Two 051612.pdf
Part Three: It's Only Pollution
Public Awareness Drought is Over, Part Three 051612.pdf
Presentation to the Austin Organic Gardening Club 031212: "Welcome to Climate Change Texas"/a>
Welcome to Climate Change Texas: (12/15/11) A three part series
written for the Austin Sierran about the great Texas drought and heat wave in
2011, comparison of this event to the historic record and the overwhelming
connections with climate change.
Short evaluation of relevant academic articles: "Climate
Change Texas The Worst Case Scenario is Happening Now"
~Three Part Series~ (Picked up by the Rag Blog and launched throughout the known
eUniverse.)
Part One:
http://theragblog.blogspot.com/2011/12/bruce-melton-welcome-to-climate-change.html
Part Two:
http://theragblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/bruce-melton-has-texas-crossed-climate.html
Part Three:
http://theragblog.blogspot.com/search?q=%22welcome+to+climate+change%22
Radio Interview:
http://theragblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/rag-radio-bruce-melton-on-real-world.html
Companion video: "Austin Drought and Fires 2011 - My Summer Vacation with
Climate Change" http://youtu.be/8b0IFjKGeXc
Climate Discovery Chronicles Press Release: (December 2011) My new book. Although not a real article, this is an informative piece and it explains why there has been a "'drought" in my article writing since last January. The book and eBook can be found at Amazon, Barnes and Noble and almost every other eBookseller. It can also be ordered through Ingram Publishing at most bricks and mortar bookstores.
It's Colder Because it is Warming (1/23/11) The arctic is warming fast and changing weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Arctic sea ice is a giant Slushee. Even though the Arctic is warmer, an energized jet stream kicks storms further south. These "warmer" Arctic storms are still cold by Snowmeggedon standards. Link
I Want A Sequestration Machine for Christmas (12/23/2010) There is good and bad news. The bad is that climate change is worse than we realize. This website explains the science - direct from the academic literature - in plain English. The good news however, is much better than we are accustomed to hearing, and it's not just about sequestration machines. It is about our ability as a society to achieve monumental goals. Link
Climate Blindness (12/02/2010) Ecosystems are collapsing all around us, but the disconnection between the public and the state of the science is profound. The reasons are numerous and revolve around a lack of knowledge. If the relatively simple definition of "dangerous climate change" was understood, our path into the future would be clear. Link
Bruce on Rag Radio, KOOP, Austin (12/03/2010) Investigative Journalist Thorne Dryer interviews Bruce about his work with climate change outreach.
Climate Change and Global Economic Dysfunction (11/28/2010) Ecoregime change, interglacial sea level jumps because of ice sheet collapse, mega droughts: All could create economic conditions unlike anything our society has ever experienced. All have happened on Earth when it was as warm as it is today, or as warm as we will be in a decade or two. Link
It's Cars, Not Coal - The New Paradigm of Climate Science (10/28/2010) It's all about Aerosols and how clean oil is compared to coal. Coal makes a lot of other pollution when burned, that masks warming. When looking at climate tipping points and the most efficient thing to do to prevent them, maybe we should be paying more attention to transportation pollution that coal. Posted first on the Rag. http://theragblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/bruce-melton-climate-sciences-new.html <
Habanero Heat is Coming Sooner than We Thought (July 2010) The most extreme summer of the last half of the 20th century - the half that already includes significant global warming, will be repeated (likely) four times in the ten years between 2020 and 2029. Link
Worse than the Worst-Case Scenario: The Climate Crisis (July 2010) This is actually happening. Actual emissions are worse than all of the IPCC modeling scenarios.
Series Introduction: This is an introduction to my essays.
Why is Climate Change So hard to Believe? Pine Beetles and Common Climate Misunderstandings
How to Interpret Climate Science
Ocean Acidification 40 to 60 Years
Ahead of Schedule
Hurricanes and Climate Change: On the Ground In Galveston with Ike
Global Dimming and China's New Socio-economic Revolution, May 2008
Current State of Earth's Climate
Dynamical Ice Sheet Disintegration
The Record Winter of 2007 / 2008
Why is Antarctic Sea-ice increasing?
Myths
Just Another Climate Myth 021709 (The reality is far worse than is told by the alarmist media.)
Recent Cold Weather Records Prove?
Carbon Dioxide Atmospheric Life